Less Developed Countries (LDCs) made considerable efforts to speed the process of socio-economic development in the post-colonial era. Immediately after the liberation from colonial administrations, most LDCs initiated very ambitious programmes for development. Different approaches and plans for socio-economic development were experienced. Many countries, after many decades of national rule and planning, however, failed to achieve the objectives of development; and some countries have even failed to maintain the status quo of the colonial era.
To corroborate the above argument of the failure of LDCs to achieve development objectives, we need to operationalize the concept of development. However, a precise definition for socio-economic development is difficult to establish, although countries can be easily classified into developed and underdeveloped categories. Development is a multi-dimensional and dynamic process that requires high levels of per capita income as well as an egalitarian distribution of income, elimination of poverty and the provision of human basic needs; without jeopardizing the needs and prospects of future generations (sustainability). Economic growth is, thus, a necessary but not sufficient condition for development. The development process also involves social transformation and meeting non-material requirements such as the ability of individuals to participate in economic and political decision making.
A cursory look at the various indicators of development gives clear evidence for the failure of LDCs to achieve development. For example, the worldwide rate of growth of real GDP per capita has fallen in the last three decades. In developing countries it fell from 3.9% in 1965-1973 to 2.5% in 1973-1980 and 1.6% in the 1980-1989 period. The growth rate of real GDP per capita in Sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America in the period 1980-1989 fell to -1.2% and -0.04% respectively. Child mortality in South Asia exceeds 170 per thousand; life expectancy in Sub-Saharan Africa is 50 years; and more than 110 million children in LDCs lack access to primary education. Furthermore, WHO and UNICEF estimate that nearly 43% of the 14.6 million child deaths each year could be prevented through vaccination at an average cost of 13 dollars per child.1
Development economists have enumerated various obstacles that halted Third World development. Some emphasized the importance of external factors in the phenomenon, while others attributed it mainly to internal factors. These include political instability, lack of basic infrastructure, inadequacy of well-developed human resource and managerial skills, unfair terms of trade with the developed world, scarcity of natural resources, faulty development policies and planning, military intervention and civil wars, etc.1
The above mentioned factors clearly stand as obstacles in front of most LDCs' development. This study, however, affirms the existence of a "development trap" in most LDCs. It pinpoints three pivotal factors which inhibited socio-economic development in these countries: militarization, environmental degradation, and poverty. The importance of these factors stems not only from their large contribution to the phenomenon of underdevelopment, but also because each factor is the consequence and cause of the others. These causation and feedbacks between the three factors constitute a real "development trap" which reinforces itself on most developing countries.
The main aim of this study is to analyze the direct effects of militarization, environmental stress, and poverty on socio-economic development. The novelty of the study stems from its attempt to explore the interlinkages and feedbacks of the three factors and the indirect effects of this causation on the development process. The focus here is on the theoretical linkages and mechanisms in LDCs, with special emphasis on the African continent. Although development is a multi-dimensional and of interdisciplinary nature, this study relies mainly on economic analysis to explain the obstacles facing the process of development. A forthcoming Occasional Paper will undertake a detailed case study of the Sudan, to provide an empirical verification to the hypothesised linkages, and to corroborate the existence of a self-reinforcing "development trap".1
Poverty refers to the inability to attain a minimum standard of living. This minimum standard of living (poverty line) is estimated by the World Bank to be obtained by an annual income of $370. Accordingly, it is estimated that more than one billion people in LDCs - one fifth of the world population - are living in poverty.1 Therefore, there are more hungry people in the world today than ever before in human history, and their numbers are growing.
Each year the number of human beings increases, but the amount of natural resources with which to sustain this population, to improve the quality of human lives, and to eliminate poverty remains finite. The high poverty levels which occurred in the last two decades are, therefore, likely to increase in the 1990s for many reasons. First, LDC's prospects of economic recovery in 1990s are gloomy (debt problems, world recession, political instability, etc.).
Second, the population growth rates of most developing countries exceed the rates of GDP growth, and consequently per capita income will fall in absolute terms. Population projections indicate an increase in global population from 4.8 billion in 1985 to 6.1 by 2000, and to 8.2 billion by 2025. More than 90% of this increase is expected in developing regions.1 The rapid rise in population has also compromised the ability to raise living standards. Third, unequal income distribution in most LDCs means the burden of poverty is spread unevenly within these countries. To demonstrate the rising trends of poverty levels, the number of poor in sub-Saharan Africa was 180 million in 1985, and is projected by the World Bank to reach 270 million by the year 2000.1 Finally, within countries, poverty has also been exacerbated by the unequal
distribution of land and other assets. Table 1 shows the distribution of poverty among regions of LDCs.
As militarization refers to the process of expansion of the military establishment within a certain society, it can be quantified by a set of economic, political and strategic indicators. These include the level of military expenditure and its shares in government expenditure and total GDP, as well as arms imports, size of the armed forces, and military intervention in the political scene.
The world has, throughout the past five decades, consistently devoted between 4.5% and 7% of its GNP and more than 15% of governmental expenditures to military expenditure. Moreover, according to a 1983 United Nations study, well over 70 million people were engaged at that time, directly or indirectly in military activities worldwide. In 1988, world military expenditures exceeded one trillion dollars, world armed forces numbered 28 million persons and total world arms transfers reached 49 billion dollars.1 From 1965 to 1985 Third World military expenditure constituted about 15% of the world total but its burden was more than 15% of total governments expenditure. Moreover, although the bulk of the military spending was by the developed countries, the fastest growth was among the poorer countries. In the same period Third World military expenditure increased faster than that of developed countries. Then the trend declined in the late 1980s but was again reversed in 1990.1
Military intervention in Third World's politics has become a universal phenomenon. Inefficiency of civilian administration, eradication of corruption, and the characteristics of the armed forces as disciplined and modern organizations were the declared motives behind military intervention. Nevertheless, most military governments have failed to achieve political stability, and the frequency of military coups has increased in LDCs, and particularly in Africa. The size of LDCs' military establishments has also increased enormously in the post-independence period. Furthermore, the last three decades have witnessed high incidence of bloody internal conflicts and civil wars in individual LDCs. Therefore, it is clear that most LDCs have witnessed considerable militarization in the post-War era.1
The most alarming trend, which receives mounting international attention, is the speed of environmental degradation, particularly the environmental problems that are caused by anthropogenic (man-made) activities. Beside regional environmental stress, three environmental phenomena are of global concern: climate warming, ozone depletion, loss of biodiversity, and acid rain.
Climate warming (greenhouse effect) is caused by atmospheric concentration of long lived gases, such as carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide; and results in an increase in mean global temperatures.1 The accumulation in the atmosphere of CO2 and certain other gases traps solar radiation near the Earth's surface. The gases absorb some of the radiant heat which the earth emits after receiving solar energy, and without this absorption the earth would be 300C cooler. Anthropogenic activities, however, amplify the greenhouse effect by emitting greenhouse gases, causing their concentration to increase in the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide (CO2) results from the combustion of fossil fuels (oil, coal, and natural gas), while anthropogenic methane (CH4) emissions result from agricultural activities, and fossil fuel production. The emission of the two gases was responsible for more than 65% of the climate forcing in the 1980s.1 Global warming threatens the survival of most natural ecosystems, and it could also result in loss of forests, wetland, and the decline and extinction of many species. Moreover,
Changes in temperature and precipitation will affect agricultural and water management practices. Sea level rise will cause coastal flooding and salt water intrusion in bays and coastal aquifers to increase, and will destroy valuable wetland. The frequency of extreme weather events (e.g., heatwaves, hurri-canes) is likely to increase, affecting human health and property, and natural managed ecosystems. Higher temperatures may exacerbate air pollution, especially smog (World Bank, 1991; 55).
The trend of global warming is alarming because an effective doubling of CO2, which is expected to occur around the middle of next century, will result in extra global warming of 1.4 - 4.50C.
Ozone (O3), the gas that occurs at low concentrations through the air atmosphere, acts as a shield to prevent harmful ultraviolet radiation from reaching the surface of the earth. Human use of Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) and halons, however, create reactive chlorine and bromine atoms in the stratosphere. This acts as a catalyst in the destruction of the ozone, as well as creating local seasonal ozone holes over Antarctica. The depletion of stratospheric ozone results in the penetration of biologically-damaging ultraviolet radiations which induce cancer, cataracts, and the suppression of human immune response system.1 Moreover, agricultural productivity and quality is likely to decline and to be of poor quality.
The third global environmental threat comes from acid rains, which result from the presence of high atmospheric concentration of substances that form acids in reaction with water (mainly, sulphur dioxide and nitrogen oxides). Anthropogenic activities emit big quantities of these substances that exceed natural amounts (e.g., the use of sulphurous coal, home heating, and energy generation). Available evidence does suggest that, particularly in Europe and North America, precipitation is abnormally acidic. This affects food chains, trees, forests, and even stone buildings and monuments.1
Apart of the global environmental degradation, there are many regional environmental threats both in developed and developing countries. Air and water pollution, lowered capacity of groundwater storage, urban pollution, soil erosion and desertification, deforestation, population
explosion, and many other problems that threaten mankind's very existence on earth. Although the magnitude of environmental stress in various parts of the world is uneven and uncertain, it is evident that most of this degradation is irreversible.
The previously mentioned trends of poverty, militarization, and environmental degradation are worrying. What is more important, however, is the causation and interlinkages between the three phenomena. Figure 1 shows how each of these factors can be both the cause and the consequence of the other two.
Poor people are usually forced to put pressure on local environment for survival; this results in environmental degradation and competition over natural resources, which in turn gives rise to social tension and armed conflicts; higher militarization (and consequently high military spending) automatically follows armed conflicts. Higher military expenditure (and militarization) has substantial economic costs, and particularly on economic growth. Therefore, we have widespread poverty and the trap is enforced on LDCs.
On the other hand, the causation can go the other direction. Armed conflicts and military establishments are considered as the most polluting establishments.1 Thus they lead to environmental degradation that jeopardizes the realization of economic growth due to the depletion of resources. However, economic deprivation and poverty, most often, are the main causes of social tension and armed conflict and the trap is again reenforced. This cl