Usually appraisal studies for development projects are carried out for a future project to decide on the viability and feasibility of an investment within the framework of an optimal allocation of resources. But in this case the projected measures are often mere guesses. However, an ex-post analysis does not necessarily indicate which decisions have to be taken for future allocation of resources; nonetheless, it can lead to a wider insight into the factors which are crucial for the success or failure of the project under consideration. With regard to Kenana at least three factors are responsible for this reappraisal. Firstly, little is known about the effect of the project on savings and the consumption of poorer groups which is a linking theme of plans to date. Secondly, there is lack of knowledge about the contribution of each of the quantitative development measures in the package to the success or failure of the project. Thirdly, as will be seen in this paper, the major base of the export effort, the Kenana complex, was negotiated around a commitment by the Sudan government to a guaranteed price for part of the output. As foreign interests are involved in the plant itself, a serious attempt to clarify the "costing" of this guarantee is required both to assess the project and even, possibly, for renegotiation of the guarantee. Moreover, for proper evaluation studies, reliable statistical data are often lacking in the Sudan. This study will certainly not only stimulate the discussion on methodological problems, but will also point out the data deficiencies and the sensitivity regarding certain assumptions which had to be taken in any systematic calculation.
The study will highlight the importance of reliable statistical data and the importance of the price guarantee for its social viability. A brief background is provided immediately highlighting relevant considerations, followed by an assessment of the viability of the project. The overall appraisal analysis which follows is based on the UNIDO (1972) approach.1
