We have assessed in Table 15 the effect on the social benefit cost analysis of a sustained 5 cents/lb price of sugar in the world market. On this more gloomy prediction the project becomes marginal for society as a whole.
In this context, the fears expressed in the concluding section concerning the efficiency with which capacity is utilised becomes absolutely crucial. While export marketing should not be a problem given the evolution of net import demand in the Arab World (Gumma, 1988), the social profitability of the activity may be small or even negative.
On a priori grounds, this would be an odd outcome given Sudan's evident comparative advantage as a sugar producer in this part of the world. Global supply-demand mismatch would be indicated unless Sudan's costs turn out to be substantially greater than her underlying endowments suggest should be the case.
Capacity utilisation and plant breakdowns would be the most obvious potential culprits. How has the plant operated so far?
The latest status report available was dated January 31, 1988. The general tone of it is optimistic concerning the achievement of planned output though by that time the full level of capacity utilisation had yet to be achieved.
